NVIDIA /AFPBBNews=News 1
Nvidia’s stock price, a leader in AI (artificial intelligence) semiconductors, hit an all-time high on the 20th (local time), a day before its earnings announcement.
Nvidia ended trading at $504.09, up 2.3% on the day. Nvidia has exceeded $500 during trading on August 24th, but this is the first time it has closed above $500 based on the closing price.
The stock price rise on this day appears to have been due to increased expectations for performance ahead of the announcement of earnings for the third quarter of the fiscal year (August-October) after the market closed on the 21st, the next day.
According to analysts’ forecasts compiled by LSEG, Nvidia’s sales in the August-October quarter are expected to increase by more than 170% compared to the same period last year.
Sales in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (November to January next year) are expected to increase further by almost 200% compared to the same period last year.
NVIDIA’s stock price soared 245% this year amid the AI boom, and its market capitalization increased to $1.2 trillion, far ahead of Meta Platform and Tesla.
However, when the earnings were announced after the market closed on the 21st, there were signs that the generative AI boom was cooling down, that some of its large customers were switching to AMD’s AI chips, or that the U.S. government’s restrictions on AI chip exports to China could be a burden on future performance. If appears, Nvidia’s stock price could take a hit.
Bank of America pointed out in a report last week that China’s export restrictions on AI chips and intensifying competition in the AI chip market are two issues that will receive investors’ attention during Nvidia’s earnings conference call.
In particular, as AMD launches generative AI chips in earnest, it is expected that there will be some changes in the dynamics of the AI chip market.
AMD CEO Lisa Su predicted that AI chip sales would increase to $400 million in the fourth quarter of this year and $2 billion next year when announcing earnings on October 31. AMD announced in June that it would launch MI300X, its latest AI GPU (graphics processing unit), within the year.
Bank of America pointed out, “Nvidia will have to respond strongly to opinions that the price of its generative AI products is too expensive compared to its AI inference capabilities.”
Last week, NVIDIA introduced the H200, a GPU with improved performance over the H100.
When Nvidia announces its earnings, the confusion over the management of OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, which has driven Nvidia’s performance growth, is expected to become an issue. OpenAI has been purchasing NVIDIA’s AI chips in large quantities for AI training.
Meanwhile, NVIDIA’s sales growth rate is expected to peak at 195% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year and gradually slow thereafter. NVIDIA usually only presents sales guidance for the next quarter, but attention is being paid to whether there will be any comment on the performance outlook thereafter.
[저작권자 @머니투데이, 무단전재 및 재배포 금지]