40% of Japanese local governments ‘extinct’
Report on ‘Local governments likely to disappear’ from the Japan Population Strategy Council
Out of a total of 1,729 local governments, 744 were classified as likely to disappear.
Areas where female population aged 20-39 will be reduced by half by 2050
An analysis found that 744, or more than 40%, of Japan’s local governments are ‘likely to disappear.’ This is an area where the population of women aged 20 to 39, the core generation that gives birth to children, will decrease by half by 2050. It is a warning that the national and local governments urgently need to prepare measures to put a stop to population decline.
The ‘Population Strategy Council’, composed of Japanese private sector experts, released a report with these contents on the 24th. The report categorized a total of 1,729 local governments into four categories based on estimates from the National Institute for Social Security and Population Studies (Sinyon). A ‘local government likely to disappear’ was defined as a place where the female population between the ages of 20 and 39 is halved over the next 30 years from 2020 to 2050. There are 744 locations, or 43% of all local governments.
The black hole type appeared in 25 local governments, including 16 out of 23 wards in Tokyo. Self-sustainability was 65, which was less than 4% of all local governments. There are 895 other places, and the majority of young female populations are expected to decline.
By region, the Tohoku region in northeastern Honshu had the largest number of local governments at risk of extinction at 165. In large cities, in addition to Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto appeared in the form of a black hole. Hiroya Matsuda, vice-chairman of the Population Strategy Council (former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications), pointed out, “The sense of crisis is not spreading because the number of people in the city is not decreasing on the surface due to the influx of people from foreign countries or local areas.”
In a 2014 report, 10 years ago, 896 local governments where the young female population was expected to decrease by half by 2040 were classified as likely to disappear. Although the number was reduced to 744 in this report, analysis suggests that this is due to the increase in foreigners. The explanation is that the low birth rate trend has not changed.
According to population estimates from Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan’s population in October 2023 decreased by 837,000 compared to the previous year, marking the largest decline since 1950. On the other hand, the number of foreigners increased by 243,000 from the previous year to 3.159 million, breaking an all-time high.
Of the local governments classified as likely to disappear in a report 10 years ago, 239 have escaped this time. Vice-Chairman Matsuda, however, appealed for the need to make efforts to change the trend of overall population decline, saying, “We also see a situation where neighboring local governments seem to be stealing young people from each other.”
Japan’s birth rate continues to decline. According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the total fertility rate, which indicates the number of children a woman gives birth to in her lifetime, hit an all-time low of 1.26 in 2022, falling for the seventh consecutive year. In order to maintain the population, SainYeon believes that it must be maintained at around 2.07 people. As the population decreases, concerns about maintaining local government service levels and local infrastructure appear to be growing.
The Population Strategy Council announced in January a recommendation that Japan’s population should be stabilized at 80 million by 2100. By promoting structural reforms in industries and regions with low productivity, the goal was to maintain a real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of about 0.9% per year from 2050 to 2100 even if the population decreases.
To this end, it includes the need to raise the total fertility rate to 1.6 in 2040, 1.8 in 2050, and 2.07 in 2060. Vice Chairman Matsuda emphasized, “We must focus our efforts not only on population outflow but also on measures to reduce the birth rate.”
Tokyo = Correspondent Kim Il-gyu
