“DRAM price could rebound only in the third quarter of next year”

“DRAM price could rebound only in the third quarter of next year”
“DRAM price could rebound only in the third quarter of next year”

As the DRAM industry is rapidly deteriorating, analysts say that winter has begun in earnest in the memory semiconductor market. A rather gloomy forecast has been raised that a decline in memory prices is inevitable until at least the first half of next year, and that the rebound will only start after the third quarter of next year.

On the 23rd, TrendForce, a market research firm, predicted that DRAM prices would fall by up to 18% by the end of this year. Specifically, TrendForce predicted that in the fourth quarter of this year, the price of DRAM for PCs would fall by 10-15%, servers and mobiles by 13-18%, and graphics and consumers by 10-15%, respectively. This is interpreted as sluggish demand for information technology (IT) devices such as PCs and smartphones. While the production cost of electronic products has risen due to inflation, consumption capacity is weakening due to interest rate hikes, etc. Smartphones, which account for 35% of total DRAM demand, are expected to have annual demand of 1.24 billion units this year. This is an 8% decrease compared to the previous year. PC has lost the ‘pent-up effect’ caused by COVID-19 this year. IDC, a market research firm, predicted PC shipments this year to 35.3 million units, down 12.8% from the previous year, and tablet shipments to 136.8 million units, down 6.8% from the previous year. Server demand is relatively solid, but the data center-related investment environment is deteriorating as uncertainty increases due to inflation and interest rate hikes.

Securities analysts have been putting forward predictions about Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix’s unstable 3Q earnings. Do Hyeon-woo, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, “Samsung Electronics’ operating profit in the third quarter will be 11.8 trillion won, down 16% from the previous quarter. do,” he said.

SK Hynix is ​​also expected to be affected by the ‘memory winter’. Solidigm was established by acquiring Intel’s NAND division, but it is evaluated that the NAND division’s performance has deteriorated rapidly since the second quarter of this year. Daejong Nam, a researcher at eBest Investment & Securities Co., said, “After SK Hynix acquired Solidigm, the initial target for NAND ‘bit growth (bit growth rate in bits)’ was more than 100% compared to the previous year, but it fell to 50% due to sluggish demand. will stay at the ,” he predicted. Memory makers are reducing investment in new facilities to respond to the price drop. Researcher Do said, “SK Hynix delayed the investment in the M17 new plant in Cheongju, North Chungcheong Province, and Samsung Electronics delayed the arrival of equipment at the Pyeongtaek 3 plant (P3).”

The industry expects the market atmosphere to change in the third quarter of next year. Do-yeon Choi, a researcher at Shinhan Financial Investment, said, “The memory inventory of finished product manufacturers will be exhausted around the first quarter of next year.

[정유정 기자]
[ⓒ 매일경제 & mk.co.kr, 무단전재 및 재배포 금지]

The article is in Korean

Tags: DRAM price rebound quarter year

PREV Kim Jong-un’s speech at the Supreme People’s Assembly far from reality
NEXT Godard, who ended his life in ‘assisted suicide’… France examines ‘right to choose death’